We made a predictive model on the development of positive and dead cases due to COVID-19.
This work has been accepted and will be published in a scientific journal: The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease.
Study moves from three assumptions:
a) the first 17 days of infection are those that determine the slope of the curve, because they are those in which the so-called SSE (Super Spreading Events) occur;
b) the duration of the epidemic depends on when the daily peak is reached which - in turn - depends on the containment strategies;
c) curve can be divided into two different sections, before and after daily peak.
This model is therefore applicable to every area: city, province, region, country, macro-area, continent, etc.
1) it is a model that can help policy-makers to make accurate strategies, such as closures / containment up to the achievement of pre-fixed targets.
2) it is a model which - correlated with intensive care places - can estimate any peak problems in advance.
3) it is a model that makes us understand how long the epidemic can last: if it takes x days to reach the peak, it takes 4 times more x to declare the epidemic solved.
Now a few considerations on Italian data:
1) according to the official data, we see that in some regions (all northern regions and Marche) we have reached the peak, or we are in the vicinity but
2) Positive cases - in some regions - could be heavily underestimated (see mortality data of 16.7% in Lombardy). In fact, the death toll is still growing and it will be for another 1 or 2 weeks.
3) this study will also allow to measure (in a few days) the effectiveness of containment strategies.